Reconciling uncertain and conflicting trends in petrale sole abundance

Melissa Haltuch
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
March 14, 2011

Petrale sole are a commercially important flatfish that migrate seasonally between feeding and spawning grounds, and have recently been declared overfished. The summer trawl survey shows a decline in petrale sole abundance since 2005 similar to the unstandardized summer catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) from the fishery. However, many stakeholders disagree that petrale sole abundance has been declining, instead choosing to focus on the unstandardized winter CPUE that shows a strong increase beginning in 2000. The assessment attributes the increasing trend in winter CPUE to management actions that forced the fleet to 1) increase fishing effort during the winter, and 2) conduct winter fishing in locations with high historical catch rates. Standardized fishery CPUE was not used in the assessment due to changing management regulations beginning in the late 1990s and the high likelihood of a winter CPUE index showing hyper-stability due to the fishery focusing on the aggregated spawning stock. Given the potential discrepancy between the assessment results and the experience of the groundfish fleet, particularly during the winter fishing season, and the limited conclusions that can be drawn from unstandardized CPUE, this work explores the utility of the summer and winter fishery CPUE series as indices of abundance for the petrale sole stock assessment. The ultimate goals are to determine if an adequate index of abundance can be created using fishery CPUE, and to address the uncertainty due to the discrepancy between the fishery independent and fishery dependent data sources and therefore the perceived stock assessment uncertainty.

Posted in Fisheries Think Tank.

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