Christine Stawitz1
1SAFS
February 06, 2018 9:00 (PST): FSH 203
An individual-based bioenergetics model to predict the response of Alaskan snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) to ocean change: model development and calibration.
Ocean change is forecasted to have the largest and most rapid effects at the earth’s poles. The Alaskan snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio), a highly valuable target species, inhabits northern Alaskan waters and has a narrow thermal tolerance. However, spatial distribution and thermal tolerance of this species vary across life stage, making cumulative effects of environmental change difficult to predict. Here, we integrate physiological data with an individual-based model for snow crab to predict population response to ocean change. Future ocean conditions are forecasted across the Northern Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas using a regional ocean model forced by global climate model (GCM) projections. Snow crab are modeled across three larval and six adult life stages. The DisMELS (Dispersal Model for Early Life Stages) framework predicts larval dispersal and settlement. Temperature-dependent growth and starvation rates are parameterized using physiological data within a bioenergetics framework. Here, I will discuss the model development and calibration with hindcast climate data.